Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 35

Thread: Betting strategies

  1. #1

    Default Betting strategies

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigseve View Post
    Dont see them needing a 2 goal start to beat us lol.

    I think there's value in -3 (way more than double the price of -2 for 1 extra goal) but I think I'll split my stake 2/3 1/3 to get a minimum of 6/4 combined and better than 4/1 if both come in.
    Respect for your calculating there. Do you often do that kind of thing, and does it tend to make a small profit?

  2. #2
    Premium Member Bigseve's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    East Wemyss
    Posts
    9,889

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Serpico View Post
    Respect for your calculating there. Do you often do that kind of thing, and does it tend to make a small profit?
    Cheers, been gambling since I ran a book on Christmas No 1 at High School in 85. Hate Shakin Stevens (no 1) and Whitney Houston (no 3, lots of each way money on it) with a passion, lost about 70 which was a good 3 weeks paper money at 15 lol.

    Always bet this way, very rarely a horse race where I'll only bet 1 horse. Have seen me splitting stakes between 4 in big races. Make sure the combined odds are no worse than 40% (6/4) and provided I win 2 races from 5 I'm level pegging, sometimes better if the odds have drifted by the time of the race. Usually make sure I get the best odds available in the morning but it takes too long hunting between the 8 accounts I have.

    2017 I lost 350 on the year but that was stupidity cos I stuck 1k on a Tory majority at 2/5. Should've laid it off when the odds hit 1/7 but stupidly, again, I didnt.
    The 4 years prior to that the profits were 1100, 1050, 400 and 2300.

    I get laughed at when we go down to Ayr or Newcastle as all my pals are sticking tenners, twenties etc on 8/1 shots looking for a decent hit and I'm spreading 40 or 80 between 2 or 3 horses trying to win 100 or 200.

    Gamble responsibly though and when the fun stops kick next door's dug like Burnley does!!!

  3. #3

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigseve View Post
    Cheers, been gambling since I ran a book on Christmas No 1 at High School in 85. Hate Shakin Stevens (no 1) and Whitney Houston (no 3, lots of each way money on it) with a passion, lost about 70 which was a good 3 weeks paper money at 15 lol.

    Always bet this way, very rarely a horse race where I'll only bet 1 horse. Have seen me splitting stakes between 4 in big races. Make sure the combined odds are no worse than 40% (6/4) and provided I win 2 races from 5 I'm level pegging, sometimes better if the odds have drifted by the time of the race. Usually make sure I get the best odds available in the morning but it takes too long hunting between the 8 accounts I have.

    2017 I lost 350 on the year but that was stupidity cos I stuck 1k on a Tory majority at 2/5. Should've laid it off when the odds hit 1/7 but stupidly, again, I didnt.
    The 4 years prior to that the profits were 1100, 1050, 400 and 2300.

    I get laughed at when we go down to Ayr or Newcastle as all my pals are sticking tenners, twenties etc on 8/1 shots looking for a decent hit and I'm spreading 40 or 80 between 2 or 3 horses trying to win 100 or 200.

    Gamble responsibly though and when the fun stops kick next door's dug like Burnley does!!!
    Thanks for the explanation man, really appreciate that. Running a book at school I rarely bet on horses, always football. I'm struggling to translate that to football, maths is not my strong point. I think X team will score 3 goals, I place 3 bets (to score 2, 3, 4) instead of one, only if the combined odds are over 6/4?

    I really like this idea. I only bet what I can afford to lose, and enjoy beating the odds ands bookie more than the money tbh. Usually make a 2 figure profit for the year, sometimes 3. Been looking for a clever wee idea like this though. Feel free to share more of your obviously extensive knowledge dude, and thanks for what you have shared

  4. #4

    Default

    There is, or was, a betting thread, so apologies to mods if not using it and feel free to move or yellow card us.

    Anyhow, my football betting centres around draws, like the old football pools used to.

    There are usually teams in the bottom halves of leagues, like WBA, Hearts until recently, Birmingham etc who get a lot of draws. Other approach is tournaments like the Champions League early doors, where teams are as content not to lose, almost, as to win.

    I usually select 3 likely matches. Put 1 5quid treble on, and 3 doubles. Usually, the odds are 33 to one for the treble, or more, and 3,4, 5 for the doubles. So if I get one double, often make a small profit, if the treble comes in too, I usually win more than 300 quid.

    I do this most weekends. Of course, several weeks go by without a win sometimes, but as long as I get a treble once every 8 or 9 weeks, I am up. Plus doubles do come in a bit more often and keep me afloat too. Most years I probably post a profit of a few hundred quid. Which I then waste on golf betting, but that is another story...

  5. #5

    Default

    Ta Mio, ESA or whoever did the necessary.

  6. #6
    Moderator super's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    hell aka menzieshill
    Posts
    15,034

    Default

    I just stick a 10 on btts on a Saturday English league 2 games ...didn't get a sniff for about 2 years but got 3 decent wins the last 3 Saturdays

  7. #7
    Premium Member Bigseve's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    East Wemyss
    Posts
    9,889

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Serpico View Post
    Thanks for the explanation man, really appreciate that. Running a book at school I rarely bet on horses, always football. I'm struggling to translate that to football, maths is not my strong point. I think X team will score 3 goals, I place 3 bets (to score 2, 3, 4) instead of one, only if the combined odds are over 6/4?

    I really like this idea. I only bet what I can afford to lose, and enjoy beating the odds ands bookie more than the money tbh. Usually make a 2 figure profit for the year, sometimes 3. Been looking for a clever wee idea like this though. Feel free to share more of your obviously extensive knowledge dude, and thanks for what you have shared
    I always do a football coupon but that's just a couple of quid for fun. The reason being I am truly awful at them. Used to do the 7 sections coupon with my grandad as a teenager, we'd both do a 50p line and without fail we'd pick up 3 or 4 wins for 60 every season. Now I do a couple of quid on 3, 4 of 5 teams and I'm lucky to get it up once a season. Hopeless.

    In your example it would be difficult to get 6/4 combined for 3 bets on total goals due to the low odds. You might be able to do it with 2 though. I like handicap betting, had Sevco -2 and -3 last night. Will do same for sheep on Sunday.

    Getting combined odds of 40% (6/4) means you always break even if you win 40% of the time. If your combined odds are 50% (Evs) you'd have to right once every 2 events.

    To work out the percentages add the figure after the '/' to the figure before the '/' and divide it into 100 and then multiply it by the figure after the '/' so 7/1 becomes 100/8 x 1 = 12.5%, I just work them out roughly as I'd need a calculator lol. So 15/2 would be 100/17 x 2 = 12 approx. I always try to keep the combined percentages to 40% max as history has shown me that I win on average 1 race in every 2 so, technically at least, I'm returning 25 for every 20 bet or a 25% profit. That's an average though and there are good runs and bad runs.

    I honestly believe that the only way to make money from horses is by betting singles and not multiples. Most multiples like Super Heinz's are bookies benefits. Lucky 15's (4 horses in 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and an acca) aren't bad as you can get double odds for a winner (treble odds with BetFred) so one 7/1 winner (of 5/1 with Betfred) gets your money back. The attraction of the multiples is the "life changing" win.

    Have read this back and my first thought was "how ****ing dull am I?" lol.

    Just shout if you need anything else or help with anything though.

  8. #8
    Premium Member Bigseve's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    East Wemyss
    Posts
    9,889

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Geckoman View Post
    There is, or was, a betting thread, so apologies to mods if not using it and feel free to move or yellow card us.

    Anyhow, my football betting centres around draws, like the old football pools used to.

    There are usually teams in the bottom halves of leagues, like WBA, Hearts until recently, Birmingham etc who get a lot of draws. Other approach is tournaments like the Champions League early doors, where teams are as content not to lose, almost, as to win.

    I usually select 3 likely matches. Put 1 5quid treble on, and 3 doubles. Usually, the odds are 33 to one for the treble, or more, and 3,4, 5 for the doubles. So if I get one double, often make a small profit, if the treble comes in too, I usually win more than 300 quid.

    I do this most weekends. Of course, several weeks go by without a win sometimes, but as long as I get a treble once every 8 or 9 weeks, I am up. Plus doubles do come in a bit more often and keep me afloat too. Most years I probably post a profit of a few hundred quid. Which I then waste on golf betting, but that is another story...
    Im always amazed at how many games end in draws between teams that start with the same letter e.g. WBA v West Ham etc.

    I like looking for angles too. That Liverpool Spurs game there you could get 7/2 for over 3.5 goals and both teams to score but you could get 10/3 with the same firm for over 3.5 goals only. So a tenner wins 45 or 43.33 but for that extra 1.67 you need both teams to score ruling out any victory by 4 of more to nil. Wouldnt be the first time I've seen the odds being exactly the same for both outcomes. It's like people that bet 0-0 correct scores rather than no goal scorer when the odds are the same. Own goals don't count for the second bet but they do for the first.

    Dont get me started on golf betting lol. It's a decent way of combining the odds tho Serpico as you usually get 10/1 minimum odds (9%) so you can combine 4 of more players.

  9. #9

    Default

    Golf is a bit of a weird one in gambling terms, Seve, don't you think?

    I always think it is one sport where the bookies don't seem to be as switched on as usual.

    They tend to base odds on past performance, wins, stature, as opposed to how a player has done in recent months. For example, for ****ing years Sergio was always about 25 to 1, regardless he was garbage. They would even put Dustin J up there when he was coke addled and injured. Add to that the fact that since Tiger has faded, it has been wide open. The amount of no-name outsiders to win tournaments is staggering and I am sure many of them were 50 to 1 shots or more.

    If nothing else, golfers are streaky. So a guy with a few top tens in April and May is quite likely to win in June. But forget him by August if he does not produce.

  10. #10

    Default

    I'll digest all that tomorrow Seve, thanks very much. The paragraph with all the maths scared me a bit tbh, you are impressively technical about it all, and that is exactly what one needs to be when betting.

    Getting this board created is my EF claim to fame. That and causing folk to call 2010 "sir"

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •